I had a debate on the topic of Chinese economy with Saliq recently, and I have been thinking about this for couple of days. I agree with his point that the emerging economies, the US, and the EU economies are joint together. But I think the financial market contributes more than the merchandise goods market to this interrelation between high-income economies and emerging economies. That is the reason why I cannot agree with his point that the US can draw pressure on China effectively by reducing import from China. I am not biased to China in terms of currency exchange rate and international cooperation on crisis solving, just want to debate on the point of export structure of emerging economies.
I checked the export data of emerging economies on the World Bank website, and got some graphs to show the change in export structure.
One fact I have to admit is that the export to high-income economies contributes a lot to the GDP of emerging economies( around 45%-90% of tatal export). But game is changing today. The percentage of export to high-imcome economies to total export kept decreasing in the past decade. While the percentage of export to developing (emerging) ecomonies kept increasing. I think this shows a tendency of more frequently trading between emerging markets. Both the demand and trades of emerging markets are spreading. Which means the dependence on export to high-income economies is weaken.
Therefore, the trade friction with high-income economies will not definitely lead to a collapse of goods sale in emerging markets. At least, they are working hard to build their own markets in order to get rid of the export dependence.
Following are some graphs from the WBG.
1. Export/GDP
2. Merchandise export to high-income economies(% to exports)
3. Merchandise export to emerging economies in APEC
4. Merchandise export to emerging economies outside region
-Maisy Zhou
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